Craig Burelle, Senior Macro Strategies Research Analyst04 December 2020
While we expect global growth to slow in the fourth quarter as many countries try to contain another wave of COVID-19, we have upgraded our 2020 GDP growth forecasts for the US and China. In the US, manufacturing, housing, autos and spending on consumer goods have strongly rebounded. In China, credit impulse (a measure of new credit issuance as a percentage of GDP) has reaccelerated and external demand has partially recovered. Read on for a visual snapshot of our GDP growth expectations around the globe.
Julian Wellesley, Senior Global Equity Opportunities Analyst17 November 2020
Over the past few years, banks have begun to voluntarily disclose their exposure to climate change risks. It is a good start, but I believe there is more to be done. The disclosures should be more robust and I think they should be mandatory for large banks. The information is critical to bank management teams and investors, both of whom need to understand the challenges ahead.
There has been focus on technology companies lately. Investment Specialist Peter McPhee spoke with Eileen Riley, CFA, Co-Portfolio Manager of the Loomis Sayles Global Equity Fund, about the Fund’s technology exposure.
The Loomis Sayles Macro Strategies Group04 November 2020
Almost nothing has felt certain in 2020. The presidential and congressional election results are two more things to add to the list. Markets had largely expected a blue wave, which has not materialized. Votes in key states are still being tallied and legal challenges look like a given at this point. We expect heightened volatility as this waiting game plays out and developments unfold.
In our recent Virtual Roadshow, Investors Mutual Investment Specialist Peter McPhee discussed with Loomis Sayles Global Equity Fund Co-Portfolio Managers Eileen Riley, CFA and Lee Rosenbaum the fundamentals of their investment approach, and the portfolio managers answered questions from roadshow attendees.
Tom Fahey, Senior Global Macro Strategist31 October 2020
US politics seem more polarised than ever. President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are running on decidedly different platforms, as are the Republicans and Democrats fighting for congressional seats in their home states. But we’ve seen a common ground emerge: there have been indications that both political parties may be willing to tolerate bigger budget deficits to stimulate economic growth.
Craig Burelle, Macro Strategies Research Analyst14 October 2020
Economic activity rebounded sharply over the third quarter, pushing the global economy out of the downturn phase of the credit cycle. We believe the economy is now in credit repair, which is a progressive but still-volatile phase of the cycle. We believe risk assets can deliver positive excess return potential in this environment, especially if monetary and fiscal policy remain supportive.
Consumers are traditionally the engine of the US economy, and I believe consumer confidence is an important indicator of consumer intentions. The August reading of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index suggests that consumers are not feeling optimistic.
Craig Burelle, Macro Strategies Research Analyst31 August 2020
We believe the global economy appears to be working its way out of a deep recession. High-frequency data and economic indicators are signaling improvement in economic activity, and many governments remain supportive through fiscal and monetary policy. While a resurgence of COVID-19 remains a serious risk, we are finding reasons to be optimistic. Read on for a visual snapshot of GDP growth around the globe.
