We Are Here: Thinking about Recession Risk
On the threshold of recession Sad to say, we think the likelihood of a recession starting in 2023 is increasing. While the Federal Reserve...
Corporate Health Indicators Signal an Economy in Transition
Our survey on corporate health in the third quarter painted a picture of an economy in transition. Even as some key fundamentals showed a...
Investment Outlook: October 2022
In our view, the majority of positive developments that propelled markets higher earlier in the current credit cycle are now working in...
Three Big Questions on the BoE’s Operations
The Bank of England (BoE) has intervened to stabilize specific parts of the gilt market in recent weeks. With its gilt purchases slated to...
Global GDP Themes and Forecasts (Infographic)
Global growth has been losing momentum and is expected to continue slowing toward or below trend. Risks remain of a Russian gas cutoff,...
Why We Think Corporate Health Can Withstand an Economic Slowdown
Corporate fundamentals have been deteriorating in the US. Over the past six months we have seen meaningful erosion in profit margins,...
July 2022 Investment Outlook: A Shifting Economy
Tighter monetary policies globally, focused on bringing stubborn inflation in line with central bank targets, have increased the odds of a...
Global GDP Themes and Forecasts (Infographic)
Tightening financial conditions, marked by higher interest rates and volatility, have injected an unfamiliar dynamic into financial markets...
Banks Are Doing Better Disclosing Climate Risks. They Need To Do Better Still.
The world’s leading banks have made considerable progress on voluntarily disclosing the risks they face from climate change since 2017,...
Three Questions on China’s Geopolitical Balancing Act
China and Russia have long had a common interest in undermining the US-led global order, in my view. Russia’s war against Ukraine has...
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